Google Flu Trends is not as accurate at estimating rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza as CDC national surveillance programmes, according to a new study from the University of Washington. The findings of the study, titled ‘Does Google Influenza Tracking Correlate with Laboratory Tests Positive for Influenza?’, will be reported at the ATS 2010 International Conference in New Orleans.
Google Flu Trends uses the popularity of certain Google search queries in real time to estimate nationwide rates of influenza-like illness activity, a non-specific combination of symptoms including a fever with either a cough or a sore throat without any confirmatory laboratory testing. While some traditional flu surveillance systems may take days or weeks to collect and release data, Google search queries can be counted almost instantaneously. The problem is that studies have shown that influenza-like illnesses are actually caused by the influenza virus in only 20-70 percent of cases during the influenza season.
Various respiratory virus infections other than influenza may result in influenza-like illness. Also, there is a vast array of influenza-like illness that is due to actual influenza virus. The researchers examined the incidence of flu outbreaks in the US during 2003-08. They discovered that Google Flu Trends deviated greatest from CDC surveillance for influenza virus tests positive during the 2003-04 influenza seasons. That year is notable for early and intense influenza activity, with a high number of pediatric influenza deaths and substantial media attention to influenza.
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