Systematizing the weak signals of change that we identify in our exploration of the future of renewable energy provides indications of a forthcoming change. Every systematization attempt aids in making sense of what is being drawn as the future of renewable energy, thereby facilitating decision-making to anticipate both opportunities and challenges.
Some of the signals identified indicate a trend toward reliance on new digital technologies to increase the efficiency and transparency of renewable energy projects. Thus, developments seeking to apply blockchain technology for enhanced transparency in the energy market are emerging. Consider Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), for example. These are instruments that renewable energy producers and consumers can exchange and indicate that a unit of renewable energy has been created and introduced to the electrical grid.
Blockchain technology streamlines the traceability of RECs, that is, it allows for improved tracking and monitoring of these instruments. How? Enhancing the precision of the information regarding the origin of the certified unit of renewable energy and the Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) avoided.
Another signal in this vein is the use of machine learning and remote sensing for enhanced adaptation to climatic and hydrological conditions, aiming to achieve more efficient management of hydroelectric dams. Yet another set of signals shows a move towards the incorporation of new materials, designs, and functionalities into energy hardware. Materials such as sand, potassium, sodium, and even chitin—a compound from the exoskeleton of crabs and lobsters—are being used to build battery models and energy storage devices.
Currently, lithium-ion batteries are key in the electrification of transportation and the storage of energy from renewable sources. However, their production presents challenges in terms of environmental, social, and economic sustainability. For instance, lithium extraction is not only water-intensive but can also involve the disruption of natural ecosystems.
The use of new materials opens up the possibility of producing batteries at a lower cost with a lower environmental impact. Sand, potassium, and sodium are abundant materials on Earth, and their use does not necessarily require other toxic elements, such as cobalt. Although there are emerging ventures or pilot tests, the widespread use of batteries with new materials is not yet a reality, however, the wheels of change are already in motion.
The emergence of solar biopanels is another weak signal that serves as evidence of the incorporation of new functionalities into a well-established renewable energy device, the solar panel. Biopanels not only produce renewable energy but also aid in capturing CO2.
At another level of the taxonomy, a cluster of signals reveals a trend toward the expansion of new modes of generation, distribution, and storage of renewable energy. Signals point towards a deepening of a model with multiple generating nodes dispersed across the territory and closer to users.
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